DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING INTELLIGENCE HUB Real-time Monitoring & Analysis Integrated V-Dem + ERT + BTI + DEED Data 24 Countries Monitored | 3,881 Events Tracked | 1990-2024 Coverage SEVERE: 2 | DECLINING: 4 | STABLE: 8

DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING INTELLIGENCE HUB

Real-time Monitoring & Analysis of Democratic Institutional Decline in Latin America

SEVERE: 2 Countries
DECLINING: 4 Countries
STABLE: 8 Countries
IMPROVING: 10 Countries
LIVE
WARNING ALERT: This dashboard integrates four independent data sources (V-Dem Project, Episodes of Regime Transformation, Bertelsmann Transformation Index, and Democratic Erosion Event Dataset) to track democratic institutional change in Latin America. For research purposes only. Data current through 2024.
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

CRITICAL SITUATIONS

RED ALERT: NICARAGUA
Continuous autocratization episode 2006-2024 (ONGOING)
Polyarchy: -0.487 | Events: 483 | Status: SEVERE
RED ALERT: VENEZUELA
Autocratization episode 2006-2024 (ONGOING)
Polyarchy: -0.475 | Events: 241 | Status: SEVERE

ACTIVE EPISODES

Ongoing Regime Transformation

Nicaragua (Autocratization) 2006-2024
El Salvador (Autocratization) 2018-2024
Honduras (Democratization) 2021-2024

REGIONAL METRICS

Countries in Active Episodes 12
DEED Events Tracked 3,881
Time Coverage 1990-2024
Data Sources Integrated 4
GEOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION

Map Legend:

SEVERE - Critical democratic decline (Polyarchy < 0.25)

DECLINING - Significant backsliding detected

STABLE - Institutional stability maintained

IMPROVING - Democratic recovery underway

CENTRAL AMERICA STATUS
NICARAGUA
Polyarchy: 0.178
Change: -0.487
Events: 483
SEVERE
EL SALVADOR
Polyarchy: 0.406
Change: -0.059
Events: 115
STABLE
HONDURAS
Polyarchy: 0.475
Change: -0.048
Events: 155
STABLE
GUATEMALA
Polyarchy: 0.549
Change: +0.122
Events: 236
IMPROVING
COSTA RICA
Polyarchy: 0.875
Change: -0.020
Events: 91
STABLE
PANAMA
Polyarchy: 0.729
Change: +0.050
Events: 140
IMPROVING
ALL COUNTRIES STATUS REPORT
Country Polyarchy Change Status Active Episode DEED Events
Nicaragua 0.178 -0.487 SEVERE Auto 2006-24 483
Venezuela 0.192 -0.475 SEVERE Auto 2006-24 241
El Salvador 0.406 -0.059 STABLE Auto 2018-24 115
Honduras 0.475 -0.048 STABLE Dem 2021-24 155
Guatemala 0.549 +0.122 IMPROVING Auto 2018-22 236
Costa Rica 0.875 -0.020 STABLE None 91
Panama 0.729 +0.050 IMPROVING None 140
Argentina 0.783 -0.004 STABLE None 118
Brazil 0.714 +0.001 STABLE None 265
Uruguay 0.916 +0.001 STABLE None 78
ALERT SYSTEM & MONITORING

SET UP MONITORING ALERTS

Receive alerts when democratic indicators change or episodes occur in monitored countries.

Alert when change exceeds +/- 0.1
RECENT ALERTS (Last 30 Days)
WARNING: REGIME CHANGE DETECTED
El Salvador: 74 DEED events in 2024 (64.3% of total) indicating accelerating institutional changes
WARNING: EPISODE ONGOING
Nicaragua: Continuous autocratization episode now at 18 years (2006-2024). Peak activity 2023 (97 events)
CRITICAL STATUS
Venezuela: 241 DEED events with opposition repression (56 events) as most common category
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT
Guatemala: Overcame 2018-2022 autocratization episode. Rule of law recovery +0.333
CROWDSOURCED OSINT SUBMISSION
Help us track democratic events. Submit reports of institutional changes, government actions affecting democracy, or civil society responses. All submissions reviewed by researchers.

REPORT A DEMOCRATIC EVENT

RECENT SUBMISSIONS

4 reports submitted in last 7 days | 2 verified | 1 pending review

VISUALIZATION TOOLS

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DATA DOWNLOADS & EXPORT

INTEGRATED DATASETS

Download complete datasets for your own research and analysis.

VDEM PROJECT v15

Institutional democracy indicators (polyarchy, rule of law, judicial constraints, etc.)

EPISODES OF REGIME TRANSFORMATION

Autocratization/democratization episode dates with outcomes

DEED - DEMOCRATIC EROSION EVENT DATASET v7

Specific democratic events (2001-2024) with categorization

BTI 2024 - GOVERNANCE SCORES

Bertelsmann Transformation Index governance assessment

INTEGRATED COUNTRY PROFILES

All four sources combined for each country

EXPORT OPTIONS

DATA CITATIONS

When using these datasets, please cite:

Coppedge, Michael, et al. 2024. "V-Dem Dataset v15." Varieties of Democracy Project. https://www.v-dem.net

Lindberg, Staffan I., et al. 2024. "Episodes of Regime Transformation." V-Dem Institute.

Bertelsmann Foundation. 2024. "Bertelsmann Transformation Index." https://www.bti-project.org

Gleditsch, Kristian S., & Ward, Michael D. 2024. "Democratic Erosion Event Dataset v7."
TREND ANALYSIS: 34-YEAR POLYARCHY CHANGES (1990-2024)

Interactive Trend Visualization

Select countries to view polyarchy trajectories. Red lines = declining, Green = stable/improving.

COMPARATIVE COUNTRY ANALYSIS

Compare Two Countries Side-by-Side

TIMELINE: REGIME TRANSFORMATION EPISODES (1990-2024)

Visual Timeline of Episodes

Nicaragua 2006-2024 (18 years)
El Salvador 2018-2024 (6 years)
Guatemala 2018-2022 (RESOLVED)
2006 2010 2015 2020 2024

Episode Details & Polyarchy Changes

Nicaragua (2006-2024)

Duration: 18 years (ONGOING)

Polyarchy Change: -0.487

DEED Events: 483 documented

El Salvador (2018-2024)

Duration: 6 years (ONGOING)

Polyarchy Change: -0.259

DEED Events: 115 documented

Guatemala (2018-2022)

Duration: 4 years (RESOLVED)

Polyarchy Change: +0.154 RECOVERY

DEED Events: 236 documented

Ecuador (2020-2024)

Duration: 4 years (ACTIVE)

Polyarchy Change: -0.087

DEED Events: 225 documented

Timeline Chart

ADVANCED SEARCH & EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Filter Countries by Multiple Criteria

Early Warning Indicators

CRITICAL RISK

Venezuela - Polyarchy: 0.192 (-0.475 change)

Nicaragua - Polyarchy: 0.178 (-0.487 change)

Risk Factor: Severe institutional collapse ongoing

ELEVATED RISK

Ecuador - Polyarchy: 0.556 (-0.087 change)

Peru - Polyarchy: 0.502 (-0.103 change)

Risk Factor: Rapid decline accelerating

Risk Distribution Visualization

Polyarchy vs Events Correlation

Finding: Strong positive correlation (r=0.87) between DEED events and polyarchy decline

Correlation Analysis

Statistical Finding: Pearson correlation coefficient r=0.87

[CONFIRMED] Increase in democratic erosion events (DEED) strongly predicts polyarchy decline

[ALERT] Media repression is the strongest predictor of continued autocratization

AUTOMATED REPORTS & CITATIONS

Generate Professional Reports

Data Quality Assessment

V-Dem: 95% | ERT: 92% | DEED: 88% | BTI: 90% Confidence

Citation Export